핵심 답변
A convention. Every pro forma in circulation uses 3% regardless of city, unit type or lease-up stage. The right approach is to underwrite stabilized vacancy from CMHC's Rental Market Survey for the zone and bedroom type, treat initial lease-up as a separate cash item rather than a vacancy percentage, and stress the result at 5% vacancy and a 10% rent shortfall before relying on the coverage ratio.
핵심 사실
- Stabilized vacancy should be sourced from CMHC's Rental Market Survey for the specific zone and bedroom type, with the survey year stated.
- Initial lease-up is a one-time cash cost covering debt service during absorption, not a recurring vacancy percentage.
- On the standard example, a 5% rent shortfall reduces coverage from 1.16x to about 1.08x, below the 1.10x minimum.
Why everyone uses 3%
Three percent is what lenders and appraisers have historically accepted for stabilized multifamily in balanced markets. It survives because it is rarely challenged and because it makes most pro formas work. Uniformity across hundreds of pro formas is a signal that the number is not being derived from anything.
What the data allows
CMHC surveys purpose-built rental vacancy annually by census metropolitan area, zone and bedroom count. Where the survey shows vacancy below 3% for the relevant zone and unit type, a 3% assumption is conservative for a stabilized building. Where it shows higher vacancy, 3% is optimistic and the coverage ratio built on it is unreliable. The honest pro forma cites the survey figure for its zone and unit types and states the year.
Lease-up is not vacancy
A new building is empty on the day it is complete. The months to reach stabilized occupancy are a one-time cost, not a recurring percentage, and they matter most at funding, when the lender assesses in-place income. We model lease-up as a cash reserve covering debt service for the expected absorption period and keep the stabilized vacancy assumption separate. Blending the two into a single percentage understates both.
How thin the margin is
On the standard underwrite, the base case carries 1.16 times coverage. A 5% rent shortfall takes coverage to about 1.08 times, already below the 1.10 floor; a 10% shortfall takes it to roughly 1.00 times. Vacancy behaves the same way as a rent shortfall in the arithmetic. A pro forma whose coverage cannot survive vacancy of 5% is describing the best month the building will ever have.
자주 묻는 질문
What vacancy rate should I use?
The current CMHC Rental Market Survey figure for the zone and bedroom type, updated annually. The research page lists the most recent survey figures we use in the standard underwrite.
How long should I budget for lease-up?
It depends on unit count, season and pre-leasing. For small to mid-market buildings we model a defined absorption period and hold a debt service reserve for it; the standard underwrite lets you set the period.
출처
Rental Market Reports — Major Centres,
Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC)
Standard underwrite model (this site),
Daniel Kim & Associates
MLI Select: multi-unit mortgage loan insurance,
Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC)
관련 페이지
본 자료는 Sotheby's International Realty Canada 소속 Daniel Kim & Associates가 작성한 참고 자료입니다. 특정 자산이나 증권의 매입을 권유하지 않습니다. 수치는 예시이며 분기마다 검토합니다. 법률·회계 자문과 함께 독립적인 실사를 진행하시기 바랍니다.
전체 레퍼런스 페이지